After taking a siesta for the last two month, the 2022 hurricane season has awakened on Friday with Tropical Storm Danielle in the open North Atlantic and now Tropical Storm Earl off the Leeward Islands.
While the uptick in activity comes as we enter the peak time of year for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, neither of the systems is expected to bring any impacts to the Outer Banks.
Hurricane hunter aircraft found that a low pressure system that has been slowly working its way across the Atlantic in a general direction towards the Leewards since last weekend reached tropical storm status Friday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and bring heavy rains to the islands through Labor Day. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to stay offshore, but could reach the islands with a southward shift by the center.
Some models have indicated Earl could eventually make a northward turn towards Bermuda, but it is not expected to get strong enough or close enough to become a wave and rip current maker along the southeast U.S. beaches.
Danielle weakens after becoming the first hurricane of 2022
Danielle became a tropical storm on Thursday, breaking a near-record 60 day streak with no named storms, Danielle then strengthened to hurricane status on Friday and then back to a tropical storm Saturday morning.
It is forecast to sit-and-spin about around 900 miles west of the Azores into early next week and could once again become a hurricane.
No other areas of tropical development are currently begin monitored in the Atlantic, according to Friday night’s update from the National Hurricane Center.
While forecasters called for above-average tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, the first three months of the 2022 hurricane season has been one of the quietest in recent history.
This is just the seventh time since 1950 that the Atlantic has gone through August without a hurricane, said Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach. The other years were 1967, 1984, 1988, 2001, 2002, 2013.
The 60-day streak without a named storm that was broken on Thursday is the second longest in history, behind the 61 days in 1999, thanks to a combination of weather factors over the Atlantic Ocean this summer.
Instead it has looked more like this (again this is idealized, not exact). High over anomalously warm N. Atlantic, with a meandering jet stream allowing for what meteorologists call wave breaking – helping to inject wind shear and dry air into the tropics. A hostile environment.. pic.twitter.com/8QOrrLDEe1
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) September 2, 2022
Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be rather nice with sunny skies and seasonable temperatures along the Outer Banks and in northeastern North Carolina.
A period of onshore winds that will continue the next couple of days has increased shore break, and a moderate risk of rip currents is expected along most of the Outer Banks on Saturday.
Only experienced surf swimmers with a floatation device should enter the ocean off Duck, Southern Shores, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, Coquina Beach, Oregon Inlet, Pea Island, Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, Hatteras village and all of Ocracoke island.
National Weather Service forecast for Nags Head, as of Saturday morning:
Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light southeast after midnight.
Labor Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night A slight chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday A chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night A chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.